How Many Loans Before One Default Stops Hurting Your Return
The formula: how many loans offset the loss of one
For a loan diversification formula, P2P lending compares one position’s principal loss with scheduled portfolio interest. Here, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending means business loan claims.
Let N be the number of equal positions, r the annual loan rate as a decimal, and R the assumed fraction of principal recovered:
Round the result up to the next whole position. Subtracting recovery from one gives the principal loss.
If the defaulted position pays no annual interest, only N minus one positions earn interest. The stricter condition becomes:
Neither condition restores the no-default return. A portfolio can remain profitable while a loss reduces earnings.
Does the size of each loan change how many loans I need?
No, with equal positions, rates and periods. Scaling positions scales loss and interest equally; euros cancel out. Unequal allocations require a separate calculation.
What the average loan on Maclear actually pays and for how long
The supplied snapshot’s “profitability” field describes contractual loan rates, not investor performance. Applying the average uniformly assumes identical rates and periods.
Threshold inputs
| Input | Reported value or model status |
|---|---|
| Average annual loan-book rate | 15.01% |
| Loan-rate range | 13.5%–19.5% |
| Average loan term and range | 12.1 months; 2–16 months |
| Reported project minimum-ticket range | €125–€1,500 |
| Average reported project minimum ticket | Approximately €343 |
| Average investment transaction, August 2026 | Approximately €387 (€11,015,731 ÷ 28,488 transactions) |
| Aggregate principal recovery fraction for defaulted loans | Not disclosed in the supplied snapshot |
Source: based on Maclear internal data supplied in the brief: rates and terms, snapshot 03.09.2026; project tickets and August transaction average, snapshot 24.09.2026. Maclear statistics provides general figures, without independently verifying every supplied field.
The threshold uses one year; payment schedules and borrower performance determine receipts.
Three scenarios: from total loss to partial recovery
The P2P lending default loss calculation assumes exactly one default. Each recovery fraction is an assumption, not a measured recovery rate.
Scenario: positions needed to offset one default
| Assumed principal recovery | Principal lost | Scheduled-interest benchmark | Capital at €387 per position | If the defaulted loan pays no annual interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% — assumption, not a measured recovery rate | 100% of one position | 1 ÷ 0.1501 = 6.662; round up to 7 | ≈€2,709 | Round up 7.662 to 8 |
| 50% — assumption, not a measured recovery rate | 50% of one position | 0.5 ÷ 0.1501 = 3.331; round up to 4 | ≈€1,548 | Round up 4.331 to 5 |
| 70% — assumption, not a measured recovery rate | 30% of one position | 0.3 ÷ 0.1501 = 1.999; round up to 2 | ≈€774 | Round up 2.999 to 3 |
Number of positions = (1 − assumed principal recovery fraction) ÷ average annual loan-book rate, rounded up. Add one position before rounding when the defaulted loan contributes no annual interest.
Source: based on Maclear internal data: rate, snapshot 03.09.2026; transaction average, snapshot 24.09.2026. Capital uses rounded €387; it is not a minimum or recommendation. Recovery is assumed; scenario default and recovery timing: not disclosed. General figures: Maclear statistics.
What if I assume a full loss instead of partial recovery?
The benchmark rises from two positions with assumed 70% recovery to seven with assumed zero recovery. Both are assumptions. Without interest from the failed loan, the counts are three and eight.
Why ticket size sets a floor, not the number itself
The supplied ticket figures describe the 24.09.2026 dataset. Maclear’s current FAQ states a €50 Primary Market minimum. The historical range establishes neither an absence of platform minimums nor a €125 universal floor.
The highest applicable minimum determines the smallest feasible equal allocation across selected projects. Multiply by the position count for required capital. The approximately €343 average is not every project’s minimum (based on Maclear internal data, snapshot 24.09.2026).
Why can’t I just divide my budget by the cheapest minimum ticket?
Because one project’s minimum does not establish every other project’s minimum. Ticket size governs feasibility of equal allocations across selected loans, rather than determining the loss-to-interest threshold.
Loan rate is not portfolio AROI
Annualized Return on Investment (AROI) is Maclear’s return metric. Maclear calculates projected claim AROI from expected earnings, remaining period and purchased principal:
AROI = (Expected Earnings / Remaining Period) × (365 / Principal Purchased)
Remaining Period is in days. Allocation, timing, idle cash, payments and losses affect portfolio results; the loan-book average cannot be relabelled portfolio AROI.
What this calculation doesn’t tell you
Asking how many loans to diversify a P2P portfolio establishes no universal minimum number of loans. P2P lending exposures can share borrowers, sectors or countries. For portfolio concentration risk, P2P lending requires assessing those connections; this model excludes correlated defaults.
Maclear publishes a specific default-and-recovery case. That disclosure is not an aggregate recovery statistic for this dataset. No measured portfolio-wide recovery fraction was supplied, so the scenario percentages remain assumptions.
Taxes, fees, idle cash, recovery costs and delays are excluded.
For broader principles, see diversification in P2P lending; for investor portfolio structure, see average Maclear investor portfolio.
Maclear AG is a non-banking financial intermediary and a member of PolyReg, a self-regulatory organization (SRO). Membership does not guarantee investment performance.
This calculation uses a hypothetical recovery assumption, not measured Maclear aggregate default or recovery data - treat the position counts as illustrative arithmetic, not as portfolio size advice.
Frequently asked questions
How many loans do I need so one default doesn’t wipe out my annual interest?
The scheduled-interest benchmark is one minus assumed principal recovery, divided by the annual rate, rounded up. At the supplied 15.01% rate, full principal loss gives seven positions (based on Maclear internal data, snapshot 03.09.2026). Zero recovery is an assumption, not a measured recovery rate. If the failed loan pays no annual interest, eight positions are needed.
Does a bigger investment per loan change how many loans I need?
No, if every position has the same size, rate and exposure period. Scaling all positions changes both euro interest and euro loss proportionally, leaving the count unchanged. Unequal allocations break that cancellation: the defaulted exposure may be much larger than another position. The formula is an equal-position illustration, not a recommendation for investment amounts.
What recovery rate does Maclear publish for defaulted loans?
The supplied snapshot discloses no aggregate recovery fraction for defaulted loans. Maclear does publish individual case information, which should not be treated as a portfolio-wide estimate. The zero, 50% and 70% recoveries used here are each an assumption, not a measured recovery rate. None estimates future enforcement proceeds or their timing.
Is the loan rate the same as my portfolio’s AROI?
No: the loan rate is a contractual input, while AROI measures projected annualized return from expected earnings, purchased principal and remaining time. Portfolio performance also reflects allocations, funding dates, cash awaiting investment and actual receipts or losses. Using an average loan rate in this threshold formula does not establish the investor’s realized portfolio return.
Can the minimum ticket size stop me from reaching the threshold?
Yes: applicable investment minimums can make a selected equal-position configuration unaffordable for a given budget. Check current platform and project terms rather than treating the historical ticket range as a universal rule. The capital required depends on the selected positions’ minimums; the mathematical position count depends on the rate and assumed recovery fraction.
Maclear AG is a Swiss peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and crowdlending platform, headquartered in Switzerland. The company acts as a financial intermediary in the non-banking sector and is a member of PolyReg SRO, in accordance with Swiss financial regulations, particularly regarding AML, KYC, and GDPR. Maclear provides individual and qualified investors access to carefully selected business loan opportunities, with integrated risk assessment, a Provision Fund, and a Secondary Market for liquidity.
The content of this article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending and crowdlending investments carry a risk of partial or total loss of capital. Past performance does not predict future results. Liquidity on a secondary market is not guaranteed. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult qualified advisors before making any financial decisions. The availability of products and services may be restricted in certain jurisdictions.